***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.7 12.6 12.0 76.8 56.1 40.9 5.6 9.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.1 14.0 9.7 69.9 52.8 38.7 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.1 13.0 11.6 77.0 56.1 41.9 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.6 12.4 13.5 102.6 64.3 45.7 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.3 12.7 97.6 64.2 45.1 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.3 7.8 14.9 98.3 64.3 48.8 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.4 11.2 9.6 68.9 52.6 38.9 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.0 31.6 13.4 99.0 65.3 48.3 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.5 12.7 87.5 62.2 44.7 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.6 13.1 83.6 59.0 43.2 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.3 10.9 11.4 100.0 66.6 45.2 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 16.3 12.7 109.7 69.6 51.1 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.9 12.9 100.5 66.3 48.7 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.6 18.3 15.3 83.2 57.0 43.0 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 7.9 10.1 92.3 64.9 45.4 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.0 13.1 107.6 68.4 49.1 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.4 11.4 8.5 62.2 50.9 38.2 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 16.0 15.6 84.0 57.6 46.5 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.0 10.4 9.9 70.8 53.2 38.4 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.2 15.5 94.4 61.6 50.7 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.7 10.1 12.3 81.7 58.0 40.6 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.5 9.5 9.5 68.5 53.3 39.5 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.7 14.3 11.1 78.0 55.2 40.0 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 13.0 26.6 14.5 86.0 58.5 45.2 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.0 12.6 13.7 85.1 57.8 41.4 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.5 11.2 10.4 100.1 65.9 47.7 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 5.9 14.1 13.0 78.6 54.6 40.9 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.1 12.3 99.2 64.8 45.8 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.0 20.2 16.5 90.5 59.8 48.2 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 7.9 16.5 10.2 72.2 53.0 38.6 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------