***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.3 19.7 17.7 99.1 59.8 46.2 4.2 15.3 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.6 18.4 14.4 94.9 59.9 44.4 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.0 19.2 15.1 88.7 55.7 43.3 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 24.0 18.1 119.6 68.6 54.7 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.7 17.9 17.4 106.7 65.5 52.7 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.6 20.6 18.2 108.1 65.3 53.7 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.8 16.7 13.8 90.1 57.3 43.7 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.1 23.7 15.5 93.6 60.3 49.2 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.9 17.6 102.0 64.0 50.8 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.4 16.0 88.6 57.7 46.8 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.8 12.5 17.1 101.6 61.9 51.0 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.4 15.3 100.6 62.0 51.9 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 16.9 16.8 104.1 64.7 52.8 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 21.7 19.5 17.8 86.6 53.8 45.0 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.1 13.8 106.6 68.0 50.7 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.0 17.0 109.0 65.5 53.7 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.0 18.4 13.1 86.3 56.8 42.0 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.6 18.9 94.4 58.2 51.1 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 18.0 14.7 94.6 59.8 45.0 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 16.3 19.4 101.7 64.0 55.2 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.2 18.2 17.3 99.9 63.0 46.2 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.5 13.1 14.0 88.9 58.7 42.8 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.4 15.7 15.2 92.3 59.9 47.1 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.0 21.6 17.7 93.7 58.8 49.6 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.8 17.0 18.9 93.7 57.3 45.1 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.9 20.0 14.0 98.8 62.2 52.7 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.4 16.7 18.7 93.3 56.5 43.5 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 13.9 15.9 117.1 69.3 54.0 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.5 17.0 19.5 94.0 58.3 51.8 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.2 14.4 91.4 58.1 43.0 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------