***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 26.9 47.3 34.5 202.5 89.7 77.0 5.1 18.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 31.1 38.6 29.3 168.7 81.1 70.5 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 36.5 52.8 33.5 200.8 88.7 74.9 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 37.0 62.4 38.1 228.3 90.6 79.8 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 28.2 37.5 32.8 197.1 85.8 75.3 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 21.3 37.3 36.2 183.0 84.0 78.0 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 22.5 27.7 28.2 161.0 76.9 68.9 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 29.1 45.3 41.2 188.9 87.2 76.4 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 36.3 50.3 35.1 197.1 89.0 77.3 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 39.8 53.8 41.1 191.0 87.2 76.1 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 20.8 45.9 33.1 197.1 86.2 75.1 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 20.9 28.9 33.0 192.3 88.1 74.7 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 20.1 31.7 32.9 186.1 84.4 72.3 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 36.4 63.3 41.7 188.2 88.9 72.5 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 22.1 51.8 37.8 276.5 94.0 82.2 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 22.7 32.9 31.1 195.0 85.6 74.7 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.9 24.6 26.7 149.0 76.8 65.0 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 37.0 58.2 41.6 183.4 88.4 75.4 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 33.4 50.8 31.4 184.0 84.6 71.9 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 36.7 45.7 40.8 180.0 85.3 76.0 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 27.1 47.1 35.3 209.3 89.3 78.3 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 25.5 30.9 28.6 159.9 79.6 64.6 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 31.5 45.0 34.1 201.9 87.9 74.3 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 40.0 69.0 38.0 191.7 89.9 74.0 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 39.2 49.7 35.8 200.7 86.5 78.2 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 25.8 45.5 35.8 224.7 87.0 79.3 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 28.9 45.4 35.9 195.8 87.1 77.2 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 29.5 48.5 37.9 247.6 91.9 80.7 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 39.4 53.1 41.1 177.6 86.9 74.5 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 30.0 44.6 31.3 184.3 83.7 72.8 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------