***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 28.4 29.6 28.9 2.3 87.5 82.6 26.9 27.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 28.2 29.3 29.0 2.4 87.9 82.3 26.8 27.0 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 28.2 29.9 29.0 2.3 88.5 82.3 26.8 27.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 21.5 22.2 26.0 1.7 82.4 77.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 28.8 30.0 26.8 1.8 85.0 79.1 27.1 27.6 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 27.3 28.2 23.9 1.4 81.2 75.0 25.6 26.2 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 28.1 28.8 28.9 2.4 86.8 82.1 26.7 27.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.3 24.2 1.3 77.5 72.4 15.2 15.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 28.4 29.8 27.5 2.1 87.4 81.6 26.5 27.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 27.9 28.9 25.4 1.7 82.1 76.6 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 28.4 29.5 26.5 1.7 83.6 77.6 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 27.5 28.2 25.6 1.5 79.7 74.7 25.9 26.5 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.2 25.6 1.6 82.1 76.3 26.7 27.6 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 27.8 29.2 26.9 2.0 87.7 79.5 26.4 26.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.9 27.8 1.8 84.6 79.0 27.7 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.1 26.0 1.7 83.3 77.1 27.4 27.8 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 27.8 28.4 28.8 2.5 88.3 82.2 26.1 26.4 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 27.3 28.0 24.5 1.5 80.1 74.0 25.7 26.2 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 27.6 28.9 29.1 2.5 88.8 83.1 26.0 26.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 23.3 23.0 21.8 1.0 72.8 68.7 21.4 21.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 28.4 29.8 28.3 2.1 86.4 80.9 26.6 27.3 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 28.0 29.2 28.7 2.6 89.2 83.2 26.3 26.8 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 28.1 29.7 29.1 2.6 90.7 84.2 26.5 26.7 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 27.7 28.9 26.7 1.8 85.2 78.1 26.0 26.5 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 28.3 29.5 27.1 1.9 85.0 79.9 26.7 27.3 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 28.1 28.6 25.1 1.7 80.3 76.5 26.5 27.2 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 27.6 29.5 27.9 2.1 85.6 81.1 26.4 26.8 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 29.4 30.0 26.5 1.6 82.5 76.3 27.4 28.3 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 22.6 22.9 23.4 1.2 76.3 70.9 21.1 21.5 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 27.9 29.2 29.0 2.4 87.6 82.1 26.4 27.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------