***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.4 29.2 1.9 75.1 66.2 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.9 29.5 2.1 77.8 67.6 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 29.6 30.0 29.6 2.0 75.6 66.7 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 22.8 23.2 27.1 1.5 70.4 63.2 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.2 27.4 1.5 71.1 63.0 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.8 24.8 1.3 67.3 61.3 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.8 29.4 2.0 77.9 67.4 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.8 25.3 1.1 65.0 59.4 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.9 27.7 1.7 72.3 64.2 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.5 26.2 1.4 68.8 61.7 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.7 27.0 1.4 68.8 61.9 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.0 29.0 26.6 1.3 66.9 60.5 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.5 25.9 1.3 68.0 60.8 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.2 27.1 1.6 71.3 63.4 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.1 28.4 1.7 74.5 65.4 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 31.1 30.9 26.7 1.4 68.3 62.0 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 28.8 29.4 29.2 2.0 78.6 67.0 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.4 25.3 1.2 67.4 60.0 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 28.9 29.4 29.6 2.2 78.2 68.1 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.8 22.6 0.8 61.9 56.9 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.1 28.6 1.7 72.8 64.3 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 29.5 29.9 29.0 2.1 78.6 67.1 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 29.3 30.0 29.5 2.3 78.3 68.5 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 28.8 28.8 27.1 1.5 70.4 62.6 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 29.9 30.1 27.4 1.6 73.3 64.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.1 26.5 1.6 72.3 63.4 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.3 28.2 1.6 74.3 64.7 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 30.9 30.9 27.5 1.5 69.8 63.0 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.3 23.4 24.1 0.9 64.8 58.0 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.8 29.5 2.1 77.1 67.4 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------