***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.8 29.8 2.9 86.6 76.5 26.8 27.6 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.9 30.0 3.1 86.8 77.3 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.6 31.1 30.2 3.0 88.0 76.5 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 22.1 23.1 27.3 2.2 82.7 72.0 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.9 31.6 27.8 2.4 84.6 72.6 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 28.1 29.4 25.0 2.0 79.9 71.4 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.7 29.9 3.0 86.1 77.0 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.6 18.8 25.6 2.0 79.6 69.6 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 29.7 31.3 28.3 2.7 87.2 74.5 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.0 30.6 26.6 2.4 83.3 71.9 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 29.4 31.1 27.3 2.3 81.8 71.7 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 28.1 29.3 26.9 2.1 80.1 70.5 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.7 26.1 2.1 80.4 70.8 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 28.6 30.1 27.7 2.6 83.9 73.2 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 30.2 31.4 28.5 2.4 84.6 74.2 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.8 26.9 2.2 81.0 71.6 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.9 29.8 3.1 86.8 76.9 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 28.2 29.8 25.9 2.2 81.0 70.8 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 28.8 30.1 30.1 3.2 87.6 77.5 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 25.1 23.0 1.8 77.6 67.7 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 29.4 31.3 29.1 2.7 86.3 74.3 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.1 30.6 29.7 3.2 86.5 77.3 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.4 30.8 30.1 3.2 87.9 77.5 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 28.5 30.3 27.7 2.5 84.1 72.9 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.7 27.8 2.4 85.0 73.7 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.5 26.6 2.4 83.5 73.5 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 28.9 30.0 28.7 2.6 85.7 75.0 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 30.0 31.1 27.6 2.2 82.1 71.8 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.8 24.9 24.7 2.0 78.3 68.9 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 29.3 30.7 30.0 3.1 86.7 77.2 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------