***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.6 28.0 1.9 75.7 69.9 26.3 27.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 28.5 29.0 28.2 2.1 76.5 71.3 25.1 26.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 28.6 28.6 28.0 1.9 73.8 68.3 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 21.0 21.5 24.9 1.3 69.1 64.6 18.8 20.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 27.7 28.9 25.8 1.4 69.0 65.0 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 26.4 27.0 23.0 1.0 65.8 61.8 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 28.6 29.3 28.1 2.1 76.4 71.2 24.7 26.4 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.5 23.2 1.0 65.6 61.3 13.9 15.6 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 28.2 28.4 26.6 1.7 72.1 67.0 25.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 27.1 28.2 24.5 1.3 68.9 64.1 25.1 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 27.4 28.4 25.6 1.3 67.8 63.6 25.6 27.1 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 26.2 27.2 24.4 1.0 66.4 61.8 25.0 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 27.4 28.5 24.6 1.1 67.8 62.3 26.1 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 28.6 28.3 26.3 1.8 74.1 68.2 24.1 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 29.4 30.1 27.0 1.4 73.1 67.0 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 28.2 29.1 25.0 1.2 67.8 62.7 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 27.9 28.7 28.0 2.3 79.1 72.4 24.7 26.1 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 26.3 27.5 23.6 1.2 67.4 62.7 24.3 26.0 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.6 28.2 2.2 77.1 71.4 24.2 26.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 22.3 22.7 21.0 0.8 64.4 59.6 20.2 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 28.4 28.9 27.5 1.7 71.5 66.6 25.4 26.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 28.3 29.5 28.0 2.4 81.4 73.5 24.5 26.2 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 28.6 29.1 28.2 2.3 78.4 72.2 24.4 27.2 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 27.8 27.5 26.0 1.5 70.9 65.6 24.3 26.8 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 28.8 28.9 26.3 1.6 71.9 66.7 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 27.2 28.1 23.9 1.2 67.3 63.2 24.8 26.7 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 28.2 28.5 27.1 1.8 74.5 68.5 24.9 26.5 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 28.3 29.7 25.6 1.2 69.3 64.0 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 22.0 22.7 22.6 1.0 65.0 60.8 19.1 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 28.6 29.0 28.1 2.0 75.5 70.3 24.7 26.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------