***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 28.1 28.7 28.4 2.6 80.5 78.4 25.3 26.8 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 28.0 28.5 28.3 2.4 75.9 75.1 25.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 28.1 28.6 28.3 2.5 78.6 76.6 25.2 26.2 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 21.1 20.8 24.6 1.7 71.5 71.1 18.2 19.6 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 28.4 28.5 26.1 2.1 75.2 73.7 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 25.8 26.4 22.9 1.3 66.5 66.2 24.4 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 27.8 28.0 28.3 2.4 76.4 75.2 24.5 25.9 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 14.9 16.6 22.8 1.1 65.8 64.7 13.6 14.6 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 28.2 28.6 27.2 2.3 77.6 76.1 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.0 24.5 1.6 70.8 69.5 24.8 25.9 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.3 28.1 26.2 1.9 73.2 71.6 25.5 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 26.6 27.0 24.3 1.5 68.9 68.2 24.6 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 28.1 28.3 25.5 1.9 71.8 71.3 25.5 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 27.7 28.4 26.3 1.9 73.6 72.3 24.4 25.5 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 28.7 28.8 27.2 1.6 72.2 70.5 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 29.1 28.9 25.5 1.8 71.9 70.9 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 27.6 27.5 28.0 2.5 75.0 75.1 24.1 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 25.6 26.8 23.1 1.2 67.1 65.9 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 27.6 28.0 28.4 2.5 77.1 76.2 24.7 25.3 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 20.8 21.9 20.5 0.8 62.0 61.1 20.1 20.6 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 28.3 28.8 28.0 2.3 77.7 75.6 25.1 26.2 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 28.1 28.3 28.0 2.7 77.3 77.1 24.4 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 28.3 28.7 28.4 2.8 79.9 78.0 24.9 25.6 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 27.1 27.4 26.1 1.7 71.9 70.7 24.6 25.6 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 28.4 28.7 26.9 2.2 76.6 75.4 25.4 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.8 23.6 1.5 68.4 67.3 25.4 26.1 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 27.7 28.1 27.5 2.3 78.0 76.4 24.8 25.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 28.8 28.8 25.6 1.5 70.4 69.0 26.6 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 20.9 21.4 22.1 0.9 64.3 63.1 19.3 20.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 27.8 28.4 28.4 2.4 77.4 75.6 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------