***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 15.5 15.9 18.4 1.9 89.7 87.0 14.8 15.4 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 15.9 16.3 18.3 1.9 89.8 86.4 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 17.7 18.4 18.6 1.9 91.1 88.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 12.9 13.8 15.7 1.6 90.5 85.1 11.5 12.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 14.3 14.5 16.0 1.7 91.5 86.9 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 13.0 13.5 13.6 1.5 92.3 87.1 12.2 12.7 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 16.0 16.4 18.4 1.9 89.0 86.4 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 8.4 8.8 13.1 1.4 86.7 82.3 7.1 7.6 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 15.4 16.0 16.2 1.8 92.6 88.8 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 15.2 15.6 14.3 1.5 88.9 84.8 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 15.1 15.5 15.3 1.6 91.6 86.4 14.0 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 13.1 13.5 14.1 1.5 87.6 83.8 11.7 12.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 14.5 14.8 14.1 1.6 92.0 87.2 13.5 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 15.8 16.7 16.1 1.8 92.0 87.5 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.5 17.6 17.3 1.7 93.7 88.9 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 15.6 16.3 14.8 1.6 91.2 86.5 14.1 14.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 16.4 16.7 18.1 1.9 89.1 85.9 14.8 15.3 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 13.9 14.2 13.5 1.4 88.4 84.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 15.7 16.3 18.3 2.0 91.1 87.4 14.2 14.9 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 9.6 9.8 11.2 1.3 86.6 82.0 8.5 9.2 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 15.2 15.6 17.5 1.8 91.5 87.9 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 15.0 16.1 18.1 2.0 90.8 87.1 13.9 14.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 14.9 15.7 18.3 2.1 92.9 89.4 14.0 14.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 15.5 16.5 15.9 1.7 91.2 87.3 14.3 15.0 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 15.0 15.3 16.9 1.6 88.6 85.1 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.5 13.5 1.5 89.0 85.6 13.0 13.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 15.1 15.7 17.6 1.7 88.8 86.0 13.9 14.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 14.4 14.9 16.1 1.6 91.4 86.5 13.2 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 12.6 13.2 12.7 1.4 88.5 83.3 11.2 11.4 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 16.0 16.7 18.5 1.9 89.9 86.8 14.5 15.2 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------