***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.7 17.2 18.0 1.0 72.4 63.8 15.4 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.7 18.1 1.1 74.4 64.5 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.9 18.5 1.2 77.2 66.4 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.6 15.7 1.0 70.9 63.4 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.4 15.6 1.0 72.0 63.6 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.0 13.9 1.0 74.5 65.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.6 18.2 1.2 74.8 65.4 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 9.0 9.1 13.2 0.7 69.0 61.3 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.5 15.9 1.0 72.2 64.1 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.0 14.2 0.8 70.1 62.1 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.5 15.0 0.9 71.5 63.2 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.8 13.8 14.0 0.8 70.1 62.1 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.4 13.6 0.8 68.5 61.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.8 16.9 15.8 0.9 71.3 62.5 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.6 18.1 17.2 1.1 75.5 65.5 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.6 14.6 0.9 70.3 63.1 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.1 17.9 1.0 72.5 63.0 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.5 13.3 0.8 70.7 61.4 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.4 18.1 1.2 75.5 65.4 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.8 10.9 0.6 68.1 60.7 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.2 17.2 1.0 72.1 63.6 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.1 17.7 1.0 72.3 63.2 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 15.7 15.9 18.1 1.2 77.4 67.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.9 15.6 0.9 73.2 62.9 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 16.4 0.8 68.6 60.7 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.0 13.4 0.9 71.2 63.5 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.4 17.2 0.9 70.1 62.3 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.7 16.1 1.0 73.0 64.5 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.6 12.7 0.7 70.1 61.5 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.8 16.8 18.3 1.1 75.2 65.3 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------