***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 15.7 17.0 18.7 2.0 87.2 76.0 14.2 15.3 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 15.6 17.1 18.8 2.1 86.7 76.0 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.6 19.5 19.1 2.2 90.0 78.1 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 13.2 14.0 16.1 1.7 83.3 74.0 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 14.4 15.1 16.0 1.7 84.5 74.7 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 13.4 14.6 14.1 1.8 86.7 77.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 15.7 17.3 18.8 2.1 87.5 75.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.9 13.5 1.6 81.7 73.7 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.1 16.3 1.8 86.3 76.2 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.5 16.0 14.5 1.6 83.0 74.4 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.4 16.0 15.4 1.7 84.2 74.8 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.2 14.4 1.7 83.6 75.1 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 14.8 15.4 14.1 1.7 84.9 76.0 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.0 18.1 16.4 1.9 87.3 76.6 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.1 17.5 1.8 85.0 75.7 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.4 14.9 1.7 84.5 75.6 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.0 18.2 18.5 2.0 87.3 75.2 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.2 15.0 13.6 1.5 82.2 74.3 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 15.5 17.2 18.8 2.2 88.1 77.2 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 10.5 10.9 11.3 1.4 79.1 72.7 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.3 16.0 17.8 1.9 86.9 76.6 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 15.5 17.3 18.4 2.1 87.9 77.3 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.2 17.6 18.7 2.3 91.5 78.9 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 15.7 17.0 16.1 1.8 86.9 76.6 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 15.3 16.1 17.0 1.8 82.0 73.9 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.7 14.0 1.8 86.7 77.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.7 17.8 1.8 83.4 74.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.0 16.4 1.7 84.3 75.1 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.5 12.9 1.5 80.9 73.3 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 15.9 17.6 19.0 2.1 87.9 76.6 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------