***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.6 17.6 1.5 75.3 71.4 14.1 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.7 17.6 1.6 76.5 72.7 13.5 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.1 17.6 17.8 1.5 76.7 72.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.7 15.0 1.2 72.9 69.4 10.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.1 15.4 1.3 74.9 70.6 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.0 12.8 1.2 75.3 70.6 11.6 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.0 17.7 1.6 76.7 72.8 13.8 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.3 8.1 12.6 1.2 73.7 69.3 6.0 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 15.3 15.8 15.8 1.5 79.5 74.1 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.5 13.8 1.4 76.4 71.7 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.4 14.9 1.4 77.6 72.6 13.4 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.2 13.6 1.2 75.1 69.5 11.1 11.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.2 14.4 13.6 1.2 74.6 71.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.2 15.6 1.6 80.0 74.7 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.4 16.7 1.4 76.9 74.0 14.2 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.4 14.3 1.3 75.1 70.6 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.3 17.4 1.6 76.1 73.1 14.1 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.8 13.9 13.0 1.3 75.8 70.5 11.5 12.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.8 17.6 1.7 77.8 73.3 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.5 10.8 1.1 73.1 67.7 7.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.2 16.9 1.5 76.9 72.6 13.3 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.8 17.5 1.8 78.8 74.4 13.1 13.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.1 17.6 1.8 80.4 74.6 12.6 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.8 15.4 1.5 79.6 72.9 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.8 16.3 1.4 74.5 70.2 13.0 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.8 12.8 1.1 71.9 68.3 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 1.4 74.2 70.3 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.1 15.5 1.3 75.4 71.0 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.4 12.2 1.2 74.9 69.6 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.5 16.0 17.8 1.6 76.9 72.2 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------