***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.9 16.6 19.0 3.0 88.4 88.0 14.3 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 15.6 16.9 18.7 2.8 87.1 86.9 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.1 18.9 2.7 87.8 87.1 15.2 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 13.0 13.6 16.1 2.5 87.4 86.4 10.1 10.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.4 15.2 16.8 2.7 89.0 88.9 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 13.0 13.8 13.4 2.2 86.6 85.8 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 16.4 16.6 18.9 2.9 86.2 87.0 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 8.3 8.5 13.2 1.9 81.6 80.2 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.5 17.0 2.7 90.6 90.4 13.6 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.1 16.0 14.6 2.3 84.8 84.1 13.1 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.1 16.0 2.5 88.1 87.8 13.2 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.0 14.0 14.4 2.1 83.4 82.1 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 14.9 15.6 14.9 2.5 92.0 91.4 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.5 16.5 2.6 89.1 88.0 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.1 18.4 17.9 2.7 94.7 93.3 14.5 14.8 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 15.6 16.8 15.5 2.4 89.6 88.3 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.0 18.5 2.8 86.8 86.9 13.5 14.5 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 13.8 14.1 13.9 2.2 85.5 84.0 11.9 12.4 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.5 18.8 2.9 88.2 87.7 13.6 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 9.4 9.8 11.7 2.0 82.9 81.5 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.6 18.1 2.7 89.6 89.3 13.4 14.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 2.9 89.4 88.6 13.2 13.5 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 15.2 15.9 18.7 3.0 91.1 89.4 13.1 13.5 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 15.2 15.9 16.4 2.5 88.4 87.3 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.0 17.8 2.7 86.9 86.5 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 14.5 14.8 13.6 2.2 87.3 86.9 11.7 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.5 16.1 18.5 2.9 87.8 87.7 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 14.4 15.5 16.5 2.4 90.4 88.6 12.3 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 12.4 12.8 13.0 2.1 84.6 82.8 9.5 10.5 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.1 16.8 19.0 2.9 87.0 86.8 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------