***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 63.8 53.9 58.5 87.6 46.2 44.2 49.7 54.8 83.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 73.6 61.9 49.5 79.6 41.4 40.2 49.9 66.9 83.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 82.0 67.2 54.5 82.3 42.8 41.4 55.6 69.8 84.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 70.1 58.6 56.4 90.0 49.1 46.8 45.5 60.0 89.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 62.4 51.0 56.5 89.6 48.4 46.3 46.1 53.4 69.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 55.9 48.8 64.5 91.8 47.1 44.2 35.6 49.3 59.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 69.1 58.1 50.1 80.3 41.8 40.8 51.5 62.6 69.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 88.0 65.9 65.9 90.6 47.2 45.6 56.6 66.7 115.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 44.8 55.7 59.0 86.2 45.0 43.9 45.9 56.9 73.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 89.7 70.2 68.4 87.1 44.0 43.5 62.5 81.0 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 63.8 48.0 53.2 88.4 46.2 45.1 38.7 57.0 75.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 33.6 48.3 52.4 90.5 49.1 46.4 29.7 49.4 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 29.4 41.1 56.5 90.9 49.6 45.1 31.6 41.3 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 71.3 74.2 74.4 81.7 40.4 40.1 67.0 95.4 107.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 27.4 42.9 47.2 89.3 51.3 46.0 24.5 42.2 63.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 31.0 43.8 52.4 88.2 48.5 44.3 31.6 45.6 58.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 72.6 53.3 49.1 80.5 42.9 40.7 34.4 65.4 80.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 79.7 67.1 76.8 88.3 44.4 44.0 53.0 69.8 92.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 52.4 61.6 51.2 80.6 41.0 40.3 56.4 69.3 88.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 73.1 63.9 75.1 91.6 48.8 45.7 52.7 64.2 76.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 48.1 61.7 57.4 86.2 46.7 43.9 46.4 65.5 73.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 44.1 48.8 51.7 81.8 40.5 40.7 44.9 57.5 66.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 50.1 57.4 55.0 80.7 40.4 40.0 54.6 65.6 90.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 67.7 74.9 68.2 84.7 41.9 42.2 72.2 80.1 106.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 66.9 61.2 64.9 90.3 49.4 46.4 46.1 61.3 80.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 31.2 48.5 47.9 91.9 49.4 45.2 37.8 48.5 64.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 78.8 73.8 65.2 89.8 48.9 45.8 64.4 74.6 82.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 52.2 47.4 53.8 92.5 52.2 47.2 32.2 45.7 63.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 103.6 88.6 78.6 88.8 45.4 44.0 64.3 94.8 125.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 78.0 67.6 51.2 80.6 43.0 40.7 57.0 71.1 81.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------