***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.1 16.8 13.5 99.1 63.2 51.3 4.3 10.2 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.7 12.7 100.8 63.5 51.3 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.5 13.4 96.3 64.1 49.8 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.1 12.3 92.6 65.3 50.6 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.8 11.6 88.4 61.8 48.6 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.6 11.5 78.5 57.2 45.4 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.4 17.5 12.5 97.3 60.9 50.0 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.5 14.0 13.7 90.5 57.1 48.8 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.0 13.3 92.3 62.1 47.7 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.2 15.2 89.6 56.9 47.5 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.9 10.0 82.5 55.9 47.3 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.3 10.3 88.1 61.0 49.5 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.3 10.6 84.0 63.4 47.1 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.4 18.3 20.6 103.6 63.6 52.0 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.8 9.1 80.5 62.3 49.8 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.6 10.0 81.2 61.7 46.6 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.5 11.8 92.6 59.7 48.6 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 12.5 19.1 97.5 60.4 49.3 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.7 13.4 103.6 65.9 52.2 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 17.0 17.4 97.3 61.3 50.3 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.8 13.1 92.7 63.1 48.1 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.9 13.6 13.6 103.5 64.5 51.7 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.6 15.0 14.7 101.8 66.3 51.7 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 18.0 18.3 104.2 63.9 51.7 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.0 14.1 95.0 62.1 50.0 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.4 7.6 80.4 63.5 48.2 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.7 14.5 98.9 62.0 51.2 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.0 11.0 85.7 63.5 49.3 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 19.0 19.3 97.8 60.9 49.7 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.2 13.1 102.1 63.6 51.9 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------