***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.6 12.9 91.1 58.2 48.5 5.2 8.5 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.0 16.0 11.6 82.4 56.4 45.3 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.7 15.7 13.1 95.2 61.2 49.4 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.6 12.5 103.4 65.3 51.7 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 16.2 13.9 113.3 68.0 53.0 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.5 14.2 93.7 60.6 48.9 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.2 10.2 11.7 84.3 57.0 45.3 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.4 21.9 16.1 113.6 63.6 51.3 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.9 15.7 114.5 66.9 53.1 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 18.0 117.6 66.2 53.7 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.6 12.4 115.3 66.5 52.9 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.2 11.9 105.2 62.1 50.0 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.2 12.4 100.6 61.9 50.4 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.5 23.1 20.3 104.8 66.4 51.7 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 8.5 8.1 78.4 61.3 48.0 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 11.8 105.0 63.6 50.8 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.5 13.5 11.9 83.0 57.8 44.7 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.7 22.0 126.1 70.6 56.7 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.1 12.4 88.3 58.3 47.0 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.1 20.0 20.0 119.1 65.8 53.9 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.2 14.7 109.4 65.7 53.4 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.4 13.4 88.3 58.4 45.5 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.8 16.8 13.7 96.1 63.8 49.0 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.5 26.7 18.9 114.9 68.6 54.5 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.8 14.3 98.3 62.7 50.5 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.1 12.2 9.6 95.0 60.9 48.9 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.4 14.0 14.2 92.4 60.2 48.1 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 8.4 11.1 98.3 64.4 51.4 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.5 23.3 22.0 122.4 69.2 55.6 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.5 16.7 12.0 85.7 57.0 46.5 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------