***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 22.3 18.3 109.1 66.2 52.7 7.1 11.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.7 17.5 14.5 94.9 59.9 50.4 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 13.8 16.4 93.3 59.7 49.3 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 30.2 18.9 117.2 68.6 56.5 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 24.2 18.3 111.1 64.6 54.0 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.4 25.1 21.5 119.8 66.0 58.5 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.4 14.7 95.5 61.6 50.8 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.7 31.3 19.9 115.1 65.0 56.3 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.0 17.9 100.2 58.5 50.1 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.8 24.7 19.7 104.3 59.4 52.6 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.7 23.9 18.3 110.7 64.8 54.5 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 20.0 17.3 115.3 66.2 56.2 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.7 22.4 20.3 124.2 69.0 59.4 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.1 23.2 20.4 91.0 57.3 48.5 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 18.6 16.6 120.1 71.1 56.7 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.3 20.7 18.1 113.7 65.0 55.2 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.0 18.8 15.2 100.9 63.1 50.8 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.0 20.5 96.1 56.2 50.9 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 13.1 14.6 92.1 59.1 49.5 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.5 20.3 22.4 111.3 63.5 54.8 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.6 17.1 17.6 99.4 60.7 49.4 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.3 14.7 92.7 58.7 48.9 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.2 15.6 89.1 58.5 47.4 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 18.4 88.4 54.6 48.7 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.2 19.7 22.7 118.6 70.6 55.7 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.4 23.1 17.0 121.4 70.0 55.9 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 20.2 26.8 21.5 113.6 67.8 53.9 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.7 18.5 17.3 119.2 69.3 56.2 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.7 22.5 22.6 101.3 58.5 52.5 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.5 14.9 93.7 60.1 50.0 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------