***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 6.7 11.3 13.8 62.0 40.9 35.8 7.4 14.7 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 10.1 11.9 10.7 53.0 35.7 31.9 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 8.0 10.5 11.6 55.6 38.2 33.4 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.6 12.7 60.0 43.8 37.6 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.2 12.7 59.9 43.1 37.9 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.3 15.3 17.4 76.9 47.0 41.7 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.7 8.0 11.2 55.2 35.0 33.5 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.2 16.2 62.6 38.1 35.8 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.8 11.1 12.0 53.7 37.6 33.3 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.0 15.6 56.7 36.0 33.5 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.7 12.0 12.5 59.9 43.3 37.8 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.5 9.2 12.9 65.3 44.0 38.7 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.6 13.1 63.2 44.6 37.4 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 9.6 10.1 13.1 44.7 28.5 27.0 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 9.9 13.4 77.4 52.6 45.6 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.5 8.7 12.4 62.8 44.7 38.5 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 7.5 9.3 10.2 54.2 37.5 33.4 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 4.3 15.2 53.4 30.9 30.1 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 10.2 12.8 10.8 52.2 36.1 31.3 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.7 5.5 15.3 57.3 33.3 32.9 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 7.4 8.5 12.0 56.3 37.4 34.4 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 8.1 13.2 10.0 52.8 37.7 32.0 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.5 9.1 11.0 50.2 35.2 30.7 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.6 49.2 31.7 29.6 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.9 11.3 13.7 58.9 41.3 36.4 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.2 13.7 74.5 52.1 43.6 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.2 10.8 14.9 63.3 42.3 37.7 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.6 10.9 14.5 74.2 49.9 42.9 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 12.4 9.6 14.6 51.8 30.3 29.3 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.4 9.0 11.2 54.0 35.7 32.5 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------