***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 28.2 27.9 27.5 0.8 67.1 62.6 27.0 27.3 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 27.8 27.8 27.6 0.8 67.8 62.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.6 27.9 1.0 70.2 65.9 26.6 27.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 21.3 20.9 25.4 0.9 71.2 65.2 19.7 20.4 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.4 26.0 0.9 70.2 64.5 26.8 27.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 27.0 26.9 23.5 0.8 70.9 64.4 25.6 26.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.3 27.4 0.7 64.8 61.6 26.8 26.9 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.3 23.8 0.6 66.5 61.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 27.8 27.9 26.6 1.1 73.5 67.3 26.5 27.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.8 24.8 0.9 70.4 64.3 25.9 27.0 27.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 28.1 28.0 26.0 0.9 70.8 65.6 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.2 27.2 25.2 0.9 70.9 65.0 26.0 26.6 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.8 28.4 25.1 0.9 71.5 65.0 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.3 25.8 0.7 66.2 62.5 26.3 26.7 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.4 27.4 1.2 78.7 70.5 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 28.9 29.1 25.6 1.0 73.8 66.7 27.2 28.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 27.3 27.3 27.6 1.1 72.7 67.3 26.2 26.4 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.7 27.0 23.9 0.7 66.8 62.0 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.0 27.7 0.9 69.0 64.2 26.1 26.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.3 22.4 21.3 0.4 61.8 57.0 21.3 22.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 27.9 27.9 27.3 0.9 69.0 64.1 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 27.7 27.7 27.5 1.1 74.3 67.9 26.4 26.9 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 27.7 27.5 27.7 1.1 71.3 66.4 26.5 26.8 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 27.4 26.9 25.9 0.8 68.1 63.7 25.7 26.6 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.7 26.0 0.7 64.3 61.0 26.6 27.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.4 24.9 1.2 78.0 69.5 26.6 27.3 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.4 26.7 0.7 65.7 62.1 26.3 26.9 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.6 26.2 1.1 75.5 68.2 27.5 28.1 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.0 22.0 22.9 0.6 64.8 60.3 21.1 21.8 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 27.6 27.2 27.6 0.8 67.1 62.5 26.4 27.0 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------