***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.1 0.3 58.1 52.8 28.5 28.9 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.1 28.1 0.4 59.5 52.8 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.0 29.3 28.7 0.7 62.4 56.0 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.9 26.8 0.8 63.6 58.7 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.8 30.3 26.9 0.6 62.2 56.1 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.7 24.8 0.8 62.4 58.3 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.8 27.9 0.2 55.4 51.5 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.8 25.0 0.4 59.7 54.1 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.1 30.2 27.1 0.7 64.5 56.8 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.4 25.7 0.6 61.5 55.2 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.1 26.8 0.7 62.8 57.3 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.2 28.9 26.6 0.8 63.2 57.3 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.4 30.5 25.8 0.7 60.1 56.2 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.5 26.0 0.2 57.4 50.8 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.3 28.4 1.3 72.4 64.6 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.4 31.4 26.6 0.9 63.4 58.9 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.1 28.6 28.1 0.6 61.3 54.8 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.8 24.9 0.4 58.6 52.8 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.4 28.3 0.5 60.9 53.8 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.9 22.1 0.0 52.0 49.1 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.7 27.8 0.5 61.0 54.4 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.2 27.9 0.6 62.1 55.7 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.6 28.3 0.6 61.5 54.7 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.3 26.4 0.4 60.0 53.3 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.3 26.5 0.2 56.1 52.0 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.9 30.0 26.6 1.2 69.4 62.2 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.6 27.2 0.3 56.8 52.1 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.0 31.2 27.5 1.2 67.9 62.3 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.4 23.7 0.1 55.5 50.6 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.7 28.1 0.4 59.0 52.9 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------