***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.9 28.1 27.4 0.5 57.9 56.4 25.8 27.2 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.6 27.6 27.4 0.6 61.8 57.4 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 27.8 28.5 27.9 0.8 62.9 59.3 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 20.5 21.5 25.8 0.8 61.4 59.3 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.8 26.0 0.7 59.8 58.3 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.1 23.6 0.7 58.9 58.2 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.2 27.3 0.4 58.6 56.3 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 24.1 0.5 56.5 56.1 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.6 26.3 0.8 62.4 59.6 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.5 24.9 0.7 58.8 57.8 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.2 25.8 0.8 61.0 59.1 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.1 25.5 0.8 60.7 58.9 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.2 24.6 0.7 60.9 57.7 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.7 25.3 0.3 56.1 55.2 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 29.4 29.9 27.2 1.1 66.8 63.5 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.1 25.5 0.9 62.7 60.2 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.3 27.5 0.9 63.9 60.2 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.9 24.1 0.5 56.0 56.1 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 28.5 27.6 27.6 0.7 62.3 58.0 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.4 21.6 21.3 0.1 49.5 51.7 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 27.7 28.1 27.0 0.6 60.2 57.5 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 28.9 27.9 27.3 0.9 63.9 60.0 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 28.9 27.8 27.5 0.7 61.8 58.5 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.4 25.6 0.6 58.0 57.1 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.9 25.7 0.4 55.5 55.1 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.0 25.4 1.2 67.1 63.2 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 27.4 27.7 26.5 0.4 56.6 55.9 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 28.9 30.0 26.3 1.0 64.1 61.8 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.9 22.9 0.2 52.3 53.7 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.5 27.4 0.5 60.3 57.0 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------