***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 28.5 28.7 28.0 2.0 75.4 71.0 25.8 26.7 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 28.3 28.2 28.2 2.0 73.9 70.4 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 28.2 28.5 28.3 2.2 75.9 72.0 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 21.1 21.3 24.8 1.7 71.6 68.6 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 28.4 28.6 26.1 1.9 74.2 70.2 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 26.7 26.9 23.2 1.3 69.0 65.9 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 27.6 27.8 28.2 2.0 74.2 70.2 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.9 23.5 1.6 72.2 68.5 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 27.8 28.5 27.4 2.3 78.9 73.9 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 27.6 27.9 25.0 2.0 76.0 71.2 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 28.2 28.5 26.5 1.9 74.7 70.7 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 27.0 26.9 24.8 1.8 74.0 69.9 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 28.2 28.7 25.8 2.0 75.1 71.5 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 27.9 28.4 27.0 2.3 78.8 73.4 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.2 27.5 1.7 73.3 69.6 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.0 25.8 1.9 74.5 70.9 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 27.8 28.2 28.4 2.5 78.2 73.4 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 27.3 27.2 24.1 1.9 75.4 71.0 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 27.5 27.5 28.2 2.1 74.3 71.3 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 22.8 23.1 21.6 1.6 72.3 68.9 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 28.1 28.5 28.1 2.1 75.8 71.9 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 27.9 28.3 28.2 2.5 77.8 74.0 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 28.1 28.4 28.3 2.4 77.5 73.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 27.3 27.7 26.7 2.1 76.9 72.2 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 28.1 28.5 26.8 1.9 73.2 70.1 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 27.7 28.0 24.0 1.7 73.6 69.2 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 27.8 28.1 27.4 1.9 75.0 70.8 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 28.9 29.3 25.9 1.6 72.0 68.8 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 22.7 23.1 23.4 2.0 77.2 71.8 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 27.6 27.5 28.2 2.0 74.1 70.5 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------