***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.5 17.3 0.8 72.5 67.6 14.7 15.2 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.7 17.3 0.9 74.5 70.0 14.3 14.6 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.7 17.7 1.0 76.5 71.3 16.1 16.6 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.8 15.0 0.8 73.6 69.8 11.3 12.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.2 15.1 0.8 73.1 69.0 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.9 12.9 12.9 0.8 75.8 70.7 12.1 12.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 15.7 15.7 17.3 0.8 73.0 67.9 14.3 15.2 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.1 12.6 0.7 70.2 67.3 6.9 7.7 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.3 15.4 0.9 76.9 71.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.1 13.6 0.8 72.7 68.9 14.0 14.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.9 15.2 14.7 0.8 75.7 70.7 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.1 13.6 0.8 73.9 70.6 11.6 12.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.5 13.3 0.7 72.0 68.2 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.6 15.1 0.7 69.9 66.7 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.4 16.7 16.7 1.0 81.6 76.1 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.6 14.2 0.8 75.6 70.6 14.0 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 16.2 16.6 17.3 1.1 78.1 72.2 14.6 15.2 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.7 12.8 0.7 69.4 67.4 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.5 15.5 17.4 1.0 76.7 71.1 14.1 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.5 10.6 0.6 68.1 65.6 8.4 9.1 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.2 16.6 0.8 73.9 69.5 14.0 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 14.9 15.1 17.2 1.0 79.0 71.9 13.8 14.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.0 17.3 1.0 78.6 72.7 13.8 14.5 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.3 15.0 0.7 71.9 68.9 14.2 15.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.0 16.0 0.7 69.5 65.4 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.0 12.8 0.8 74.9 69.7 12.9 13.5 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.0 16.6 0.7 70.1 66.2 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.4 15.5 0.9 78.0 73.2 13.0 13.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.0 12.0 0.6 67.0 66.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 15.9 15.8 17.5 0.9 74.5 69.5 14.6 15.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------