***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.2 14.8 16.9 0.6 61.6 60.1 14.0 14.5 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 15.5 14.8 16.7 0.6 64.7 60.1 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.1 16.5 17.1 0.7 64.9 61.2 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.2 11.8 14.5 0.7 61.7 61.1 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.8 14.9 0.7 64.4 62.0 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.3 12.5 0.8 64.2 63.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.1 14.7 16.8 0.6 63.4 59.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.0 7.5 12.1 0.6 62.8 61.4 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 15.1 14.8 15.1 0.8 65.7 63.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.4 13.2 0.7 63.3 61.9 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.0 14.9 14.4 0.8 67.8 64.5 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.5 13.3 0.8 66.6 63.9 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.0 13.2 0.7 64.5 63.5 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.1 14.7 0.6 61.8 59.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.3 16.4 1.0 68.9 66.5 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.0 13.9 0.8 67.2 64.0 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 15.6 15.4 16.7 0.8 67.6 61.3 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.2 12.4 0.6 59.6 59.4 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.1 14.5 16.7 0.7 65.5 60.6 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 9.1 10.2 0.5 59.2 58.5 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.6 16.2 0.7 63.0 61.1 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.6 16.6 0.7 66.1 60.6 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.2 16.7 0.8 65.6 61.5 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.9 14.6 0.6 61.4 59.9 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 15.7 0.6 61.0 60.0 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 13.4 13.4 12.5 0.7 62.6 62.3 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.0 16.3 0.6 61.2 60.2 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.0 13.6 15.1 0.8 65.5 63.9 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 11.8 11.4 11.6 0.5 60.1 59.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 15.4 14.8 16.9 0.6 64.3 60.0 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------