***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 15.8 15.9 18.0 1.8 79.5 74.8 14.4 15.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.9 18.0 1.9 81.0 75.7 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 17.0 17.3 18.3 1.9 81.9 76.7 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 12.6 13.0 15.6 1.7 78.5 75.8 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 13.9 14.2 16.1 1.7 79.1 76.3 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 12.8 13.0 12.9 1.4 75.0 74.2 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 15.8 16.2 18.0 1.8 78.8 74.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 7.9 8.2 13.1 1.5 76.2 74.5 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 15.2 15.7 16.5 1.9 83.3 79.7 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.0 15.2 14.3 1.7 79.3 76.9 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.3 15.6 1.8 78.8 78.6 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 13.0 13.3 14.3 1.8 78.1 77.1 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 14.8 15.1 14.2 1.5 76.8 76.0 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 15.6 15.5 15.5 1.3 75.7 71.5 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 16.0 17.1 17.4 1.9 85.6 82.8 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.4 15.0 1.7 77.9 77.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.1 16.6 18.0 2.1 81.7 76.3 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 13.6 13.9 13.5 1.5 76.5 73.7 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.9 18.1 2.0 81.9 76.8 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 9.4 9.5 11.5 1.5 76.8 74.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 15.0 15.2 17.4 1.7 78.8 76.3 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.7 18.0 2.1 81.4 76.8 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 14.9 15.6 18.0 2.2 85.0 78.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 15.2 15.5 15.7 1.5 77.1 73.7 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.4 16.9 1.5 74.5 72.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 14.0 14.3 13.2 1.5 77.2 75.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.4 17.4 1.6 75.0 72.1 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 14.1 14.6 16.1 1.8 82.0 79.2 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 12.0 12.2 12.6 1.4 76.6 73.5 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 15.6 16.1 18.2 2.0 81.7 76.0 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------