***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 61.4 123.8 75.5 62.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 73.6 84.5 53.8 113.4 67.8 57.5 49.9 66.9 83.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 78.6 111.3 60.4 122.9 75.3 61.2 55.6 69.8 84.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 86.4 92.4 63.8 122.4 71.7 62.9 45.5 60.0 89.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 60.9 78.8 64.7 123.2 71.6 62.1 46.1 53.4 69.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 55.0 57.2 78.5 110.1 62.3 56.8 35.6 49.3 59.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 69.4 72.8 56.2 114.6 68.3 58.3 51.5 62.6 69.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 86.3 122.2 64.8 110.7 67.9 56.9 56.6 66.7 115.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 64.1 83.3 64.6 122.0 70.9 60.7 45.9 56.9 73.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 88.6 105.7 71.4 117.0 71.8 59.7 62.5 81.0 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 62.4 81.3 58.3 120.7 71.4 60.7 38.7 57.0 75.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 57.2 63.6 52.4 110.2 66.2 55.8 29.7 49.4 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.1 57.6 65.0 112.6 65.8 57.3 31.6 41.3 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 100.7 107.2 69.8 114.3 66.0 58.5 67.0 95.4 107.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 65.8 74.8 53.4 119.2 71.8 63.1 24.5 42.2 63.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 49.8 58.1 62.4 116.5 66.8 58.9 31.6 45.6 58.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 72.3 75.4 52.3 107.8 63.6 54.8 34.4 65.4 80.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 50.3 97.2 77.8 110.3 67.9 56.5 53.0 69.8 92.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 74.8 89.4 53.9 114.8 68.4 57.9 56.4 69.3 88.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 52.1 77.7 78.6 107.2 67.1 55.3 52.7 64.2 76.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 79.9 80.2 61.0 126.7 75.1 62.2 46.4 65.5 73.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 64.0 66.3 50.3 107.3 63.5 55.4 44.9 57.5 66.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 70.9 90.1 56.5 116.7 68.5 58.9 54.6 65.6 90.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 91.2 113.5 70.8 116.5 68.4 58.7 72.2 80.1 106.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 75.5 82.9 71.8 121.5 71.5 62.2 46.1 61.3 80.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 54.2 67.4 53.6 110.9 67.6 55.8 37.8 48.5 64.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 78.1 86.7 70.7 120.8 71.4 61.2 64.4 74.6 82.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 51.1 66.2 59.0 119.8 69.6 61.8 32.2 45.7 63.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 119.6 129.0 79.2 112.0 69.3 57.7 64.3 94.8 125.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 77.4 91.5 56.2 117.5 71.1 59.4 57.0 71.1 81.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------