***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 73.1 55.2 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.3 7.2 86.5 59.5 44.3 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.1 13.0 6.5 76.3 55.3 40.7 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.8 7.3 89.8 60.8 46.6 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.7 7.5 89.9 59.6 44.3 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.2 10.7 79.0 59.7 43.3 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.4 7.3 88.5 57.3 44.3 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.8 14.0 8.1 81.1 57.1 41.7 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.6 7.3 83.5 56.5 42.9 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 14.1 8.7 81.8 56.0 41.9 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.4 7.3 96.0 65.5 43.8 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.7 12.3 6.6 88.7 63.7 41.6 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.3 8.0 8.6 91.4 66.2 44.1 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.4 12.0 9.5 83.5 55.9 43.8 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.5 5.8 83.7 61.6 46.7 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.4 8.2 8.5 100.6 67.7 46.2 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.3 7.5 86.4 58.3 45.5 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 11.7 10.3 77.1 54.2 42.0 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.3 7.3 86.8 59.6 45.0 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 13.8 10.8 79.2 56.3 43.4 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.4 6.1 76.9 55.7 42.4 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.9 7.7 87.2 59.2 47.7 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.3 14.3 7.7 88.4 59.4 45.1 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.9 8.9 78.0 53.7 41.9 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.1 7.4 77.6 54.9 44.4 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.8 6.8 94.8 68.7 44.1 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.4 7.4 77.6 53.8 44.0 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.0 7.4 95.4 63.7 47.6 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 15.7 10.5 77.3 54.0 42.4 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 5.1 10.2 7.0 85.0 57.6 43.0 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------