***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 119.4 71.3 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 22.4 20.8 15.1 117.3 70.4 56.0 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 22.8 15.1 108.4 66.2 53.4 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 33.9 15.5 113.8 71.0 54.3 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.5 25.3 16.0 114.1 69.8 51.2 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.8 21.6 20.5 103.7 62.1 53.4 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.3 23.3 16.1 121.8 71.1 58.5 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.9 31.6 17.0 111.3 66.5 52.5 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.6 20.9 16.8 115.2 69.0 51.9 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 21.3 34.0 18.6 114.1 67.2 53.3 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.5 26.4 14.5 116.2 70.9 53.0 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.5 19.9 13.3 105.0 65.8 48.8 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 17.8 16.8 107.3 63.2 52.4 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.5 32.0 19.8 113.6 64.9 53.3 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.1 12.1 106.5 68.9 55.3 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.6 24.5 15.8 110.8 69.8 53.6 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.1 24.3 15.4 120.2 73.1 58.4 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.0 20.7 107.0 61.1 51.1 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.2 20.6 14.8 114.5 68.4 53.7 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.5 20.3 21.1 109.6 64.1 54.1 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 20.0 15.1 114.3 66.8 52.8 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.3 17.2 15.6 128.9 74.1 56.7 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.6 16.8 15.4 111.6 66.2 52.1 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.7 30.1 18.9 108.3 61.7 52.0 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 20.6 18.8 118.9 71.1 55.7 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.8 20.2 13.4 103.9 62.4 50.1 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.0 27.4 19.1 122.8 72.2 57.2 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 18.4 13.7 106.9 69.2 54.3 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 30.0 21.5 113.4 63.6 54.4 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 23.7 15.1 115.7 68.9 56.3 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------