***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 25.7 148.8 75.4 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.1 29.4 19.1 119.9 67.1 60.4 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 33.4 49.3 25.2 161.3 81.5 66.4 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 30.9 38.2 28.5 160.5 79.1 68.3 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 25.8 32.9 27.9 159.3 78.9 67.3 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 21.3 23.9 31.9 155.4 78.9 68.1 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 20.5 23.8 20.4 120.2 70.4 62.0 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 25.9 30.8 26.3 139.9 73.5 64.3 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 26.0 30.5 26.1 151.2 76.3 65.1 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 34.6 42.4 28.8 149.2 76.3 66.0 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 21.4 29.4 25.7 157.0 80.6 67.4 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.4 22.0 23.1 144.6 75.3 65.1 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 20.5 23.8 28.5 152.9 75.2 69.0 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.7 35.9 24.8 136.4 74.0 61.9 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 18.9 25.1 25.9 162.6 80.8 68.4 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 18.4 24.6 27.4 154.4 78.0 68.0 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.7 21.7 17.6 104.0 61.7 55.5 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.2 31.9 28.6 138.9 75.1 63.5 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.5 28.7 19.5 126.5 68.6 60.7 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 27.3 28.0 28.2 129.5 68.6 63.4 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.9 29.5 25.9 159.9 77.3 66.2 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 18.9 16.0 15.6 97.7 54.1 52.0 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 19.0 31.8 20.9 134.7 74.4 61.2 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.7 41.1 26.9 152.3 79.8 64.7 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.1 30.7 29.9 152.0 78.6 69.3 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 22.5 29.2 24.8 145.3 74.3 66.3 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 26.1 28.2 28.6 142.7 74.4 67.4 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 22.5 32.3 27.2 160.6 79.5 67.6 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 29.3 41.2 28.4 136.9 72.0 64.3 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 30.2 33.6 21.2 132.5 73.4 63.3 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------