***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.9 -1.2 27.0 30.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 25.7 26.0 25.6 -1.5 22.4 26.2 26.8 27.1 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 25.9 26.4 26.0 -1.2 26.7 31.0 26.6 27.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.3 19.4 24.4 -1.1 24.1 30.3 19.7 20.4 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 26.4 26.2 24.3 -1.2 22.5 29.8 26.8 27.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 25.1 25.6 22.4 -0.7 32.4 37.3 25.6 26.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 25.8 25.7 25.5 -1.5 22.1 25.6 26.8 26.9 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 13.9 14.9 22.5 -1.1 24.6 30.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 25.9 25.9 24.7 -1.2 22.1 29.4 26.5 27.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 25.5 25.6 23.2 -1.2 22.2 29.4 25.9 27.0 27.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 25.9 26.0 24.0 -1.0 23.7 32.0 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 25.1 25.3 23.6 -0.9 27.7 33.0 26.0 26.6 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.6 23.4 -0.8 31.4 36.1 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 25.7 25.9 24.1 -1.3 23.4 27.7 26.3 26.7 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 27.1 27.4 25.5 -0.9 30.3 33.4 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 26.6 27.1 23.9 -0.8 28.0 34.5 27.2 28.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 25.1 24.6 25.1 -1.7 17.9 23.8 26.2 26.4 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 24.9 24.8 22.3 -1.2 21.8 28.6 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 25.4 25.9 25.7 -1.4 24.5 27.8 26.1 26.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 20.2 21.0 20.2 -1.2 25.0 29.1 21.3 22.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 25.9 26.2 25.5 -1.2 23.8 29.9 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 25.5 26.3 25.2 -1.5 22.7 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 25.4 26.3 25.6 -1.3 26.8 29.4 26.5 26.8 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 25.3 25.5 24.1 -1.2 22.8 29.1 25.7 26.6 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 26.1 26.4 24.5 -1.2 24.1 29.3 26.6 27.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 25.9 26.3 23.1 -0.9 28.8 33.6 26.6 27.3 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 25.7 26.0 25.0 -1.2 25.1 29.6 26.3 26.9 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 27.0 27.2 24.9 -1.0 27.0 32.7 27.5 28.1 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 20.0 20.4 21.3 -1.2 22.9 28.5 21.1 21.8 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 25.8 26.0 25.8 -1.4 25.5 28.0 26.4 27.0 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------