***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.4 -1.1 38.4 40.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.4 26.1 -1.5 35.6 35.2 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.5 26.6 -1.0 38.2 40.8 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 18.3 18.6 25.2 -0.9 37.3 42.1 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 25.9 26.5 25.0 -0.9 37.6 42.6 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.1 23.3 -0.3 47.0 48.9 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.5 26.1 26.0 -1.5 34.3 34.8 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.7 23.3 -0.8 38.2 43.1 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 25.4 25.6 25.2 -1.0 39.3 42.2 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 25.2 25.2 23.8 -0.9 38.6 42.2 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.4 25.7 24.6 -0.7 39.7 45.0 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.6 25.1 24.5 -0.6 40.1 45.7 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.5 24.2 -0.4 44.6 47.7 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 25.4 25.7 24.6 -1.2 34.5 38.1 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.6 26.9 26.0 -0.8 39.5 43.6 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 26.6 26.5 24.6 -0.5 42.2 46.9 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 25.2 25.5 25.6 -1.7 31.0 32.6 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 24.6 24.7 23.0 -1.0 37.2 41.1 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 25.3 25.8 26.3 -1.4 35.9 36.7 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 20.5 20.3 21.0 -0.9 37.6 41.7 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 25.3 26.6 26.0 -1.0 40.0 42.0 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 25.3 26.3 25.7 -1.6 31.9 33.8 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.1 -1.2 34.8 38.6 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 24.8 25.2 24.7 -1.0 36.6 40.8 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.7 26.0 25.0 -1.0 39.3 41.0 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.7 26.0 24.1 -0.6 41.7 45.9 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.2 26.3 25.5 -1.1 38.6 40.2 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.5 25.7 -0.8 38.8 43.9 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 19.7 19.9 22.0 -1.0 36.3 41.0 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.6 25.9 26.4 -1.4 36.4 36.9 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------