***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.2 -1.3 29.4 37.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.8 24.3 24.9 -1.8 26.0 33.2 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 23.8 25.0 25.3 -1.4 30.0 37.4 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 17.9 18.1 23.9 -1.2 30.1 38.2 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 24.1 25.1 23.8 -1.2 30.3 38.8 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 23.6 25.5 22.1 -0.4 47.8 47.0 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 24.3 24.2 24.8 -1.8 26.2 33.3 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.7 22.2 -1.0 34.3 40.9 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 23.7 24.9 24.0 -1.3 30.5 38.2 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 23.8 25.3 22.7 -1.2 32.3 39.1 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 23.9 25.7 23.4 -1.0 33.9 41.1 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.9 25.0 23.3 -0.8 37.3 43.1 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 24.5 26.5 22.9 -0.6 41.0 45.5 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 23.6 24.0 23.4 -1.6 30.8 35.5 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.3 26.1 24.7 -1.0 33.4 39.5 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 24.8 26.8 23.4 -0.7 37.5 43.6 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 23.3 24.0 24.5 -2.0 25.9 30.9 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 23.0 24.5 21.9 -1.3 34.0 38.8 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 23.3 23.8 25.0 -1.7 26.9 34.1 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 19.2 20.2 20.0 -1.0 35.4 40.8 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 23.4 25.4 24.8 -1.3 30.9 38.0 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 23.3 23.6 24.5 -1.9 26.3 31.4 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 23.5 24.6 24.9 -1.6 29.0 35.3 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 23.2 24.6 23.5 -1.4 31.8 37.5 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 23.7 25.2 23.8 -1.3 29.8 36.9 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 24.2 25.8 22.9 -0.6 41.7 44.8 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 23.7 24.7 24.3 -1.4 29.5 36.7 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 25.2 26.3 24.4 -1.0 33.1 40.2 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 18.7 19.6 21.0 -1.2 35.6 39.6 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 23.8 24.7 25.1 -1.6 26.2 34.7 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------