***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.3 -1.9 27.4 28.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 24.0 24.1 24.0 -2.1 29.0 28.5 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.7 24.3 -1.9 29.2 29.2 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 17.8 18.1 22.2 -1.9 30.1 28.7 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 24.8 25.4 22.6 -1.9 28.9 28.6 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 23.0 23.6 20.0 -1.9 27.7 28.8 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 23.8 23.9 24.0 -2.1 28.7 28.3 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.6 20.3 -2.1 26.2 27.9 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.4 23.4 -1.9 28.4 29.1 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 24.2 24.1 21.4 -2.0 27.0 28.7 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 24.4 24.9 22.2 -1.9 28.8 28.6 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 23.7 23.9 21.3 -2.0 27.4 28.6 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.5 24.9 21.5 -1.8 29.0 30.2 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 24.2 23.8 22.9 -1.9 31.2 30.3 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 26.0 25.6 24.2 -1.7 28.9 30.2 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 25.4 25.5 22.1 -1.8 29.0 29.8 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 23.6 23.4 23.7 -2.0 30.8 30.3 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 23.2 23.5 20.5 -2.1 27.0 28.4 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 23.6 24.0 24.1 -2.0 29.3 29.0 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 18.4 18.9 18.1 -2.2 26.1 27.5 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 24.2 24.6 24.1 -2.0 29.6 28.4 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 24.0 23.8 23.8 -1.8 31.3 31.7 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 24.0 24.3 24.1 -1.9 30.1 30.3 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 23.8 24.1 22.6 -1.9 30.1 29.3 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 24.6 24.5 23.0 -2.0 27.0 27.0 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 23.8 24.7 20.6 -2.1 28.7 28.3 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 24.1 23.9 23.6 -2.0 26.1 27.6 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.7 26.0 23.0 -1.8 29.6 29.7 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 18.3 18.3 19.6 -2.1 26.7 28.4 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 23.6 24.1 24.2 -2.1 28.1 28.3 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------