***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.2 -0.8 24.2 30.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 14.0 13.8 16.1 -1.1 23.0 25.6 14.3 14.6 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 15.9 15.9 16.2 -0.8 24.6 29.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 11.0 10.6 14.4 -0.9 19.2 25.2 11.3 12.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.5 14.2 -0.9 17.3 25.4 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 11.6 12.0 12.4 -0.7 27.5 31.3 12.1 12.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 14.4 14.1 16.1 -1.1 21.0 25.1 14.3 15.2 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 6.6 6.6 12.1 -0.9 21.9 25.6 6.9 7.7 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.9 13.7 14.5 -0.9 18.5 25.1 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 13.8 13.6 12.9 -0.9 20.3 25.4 14.0 14.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.7 -0.8 22.5 27.8 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 11.5 11.4 13.0 -0.8 23.7 27.4 11.6 12.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 13.0 13.1 12.8 -0.7 24.4 29.5 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.1 14.4 -1.0 17.9 25.0 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 14.9 14.8 15.4 -0.8 26.8 29.0 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 13.9 13.9 13.5 -0.7 23.5 29.3 14.0 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 14.7 14.5 15.8 -1.1 20.6 24.8 14.6 15.2 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 12.5 12.4 12.1 -0.9 22.8 25.6 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.0 16.1 -1.0 24.0 26.8 14.1 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 8.2 8.1 10.2 -0.9 22.4 26.0 8.4 9.1 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 13.8 13.7 15.5 -0.9 21.7 27.0 14.0 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 13.7 13.4 15.7 -1.1 19.4 24.9 13.8 14.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 13.7 13.5 15.8 -0.9 24.5 27.8 13.8 14.5 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 14.2 13.9 14.2 -0.9 22.7 26.9 14.2 15.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.7 14.8 -0.9 20.1 26.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.4 12.6 -0.8 18.9 25.1 12.9 13.5 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 13.8 13.5 15.5 -0.8 22.1 28.7 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.7 14.8 -0.8 22.7 27.4 13.0 13.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.8 10.7 11.4 -0.9 22.5 26.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.3 16.2 -1.0 24.1 26.9 14.6 15.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------