***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.2 -0.5 37.8 40.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.1 -0.8 37.7 38.2 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.4 17.4 17.2 -0.5 40.4 41.8 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.3 15.5 -0.6 35.3 38.7 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.9 15.3 -0.6 33.6 39.8 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 12.2 13.2 13.8 -0.1 45.4 47.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.7 17.1 -0.8 35.8 36.8 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.6 7.9 13.4 -0.5 37.9 41.5 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.8 15.6 -0.6 33.9 40.4 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.4 14.5 14.0 -0.5 37.1 41.1 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.9 14.9 -0.4 38.9 42.9 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 12.0 13.0 14.4 -0.4 40.1 43.1 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.6 14.0 -0.3 43.7 44.8 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.6 15.4 -0.6 41.1 39.7 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.3 16.4 -0.5 40.3 41.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.6 15.3 14.7 -0.3 39.7 44.0 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.4 15.6 16.8 -0.8 35.4 37.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.7 13.3 -0.5 39.6 41.6 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.2 -0.7 40.9 39.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.5 11.6 -0.5 40.5 42.1 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.7 16.5 -0.5 35.6 40.7 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.9 16.8 -0.7 38.9 39.6 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.7 17.0 -0.6 43.5 40.5 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.3 15.3 -0.5 41.3 41.7 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.7 14.9 15.7 -0.5 37.1 39.6 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.5 14.1 13.8 -0.6 38.6 38.8 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.0 16.4 -0.5 37.7 40.1 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.2 14.0 16.0 -0.5 36.8 41.0 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.8 12.6 -0.4 42.8 42.8 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.7 17.3 -0.7 38.4 38.9 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------