***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 -0.9 39.7 39.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.3 -1.2 35.0 34.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.9 16.5 -0.8 38.8 38.8 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.7 14.6 -1.0 35.8 35.5 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.3 14.4 -0.9 36.3 36.0 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.0 12.7 -0.6 38.2 41.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.3 -1.2 32.4 33.8 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.9 12.5 -0.8 36.2 38.2 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.9 14.7 -0.9 35.8 36.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.8 13.2 -0.9 35.4 37.1 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.8 14.0 -0.7 38.5 39.0 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.6 13.4 -0.7 37.5 39.0 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.4 13.0 -0.7 35.4 39.2 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.8 14.7 -1.0 34.4 36.5 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.0 15.5 -0.9 34.6 36.4 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.8 13.9 13.7 -0.7 36.8 39.8 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.0 -1.2 31.9 33.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.5 12.5 -0.8 33.1 36.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.0 13.8 16.3 -1.1 35.3 35.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.5 10.7 -0.8 35.9 38.3 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.1 15.8 -0.8 38.5 38.3 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.9 -1.2 29.8 33.9 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.4 16.1 -1.0 35.0 36.6 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.2 14.5 -0.8 36.6 37.8 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.6 15.0 -0.9 39.1 38.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.7 13.0 -0.8 35.3 37.1 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.5 15.6 -0.9 38.8 38.4 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.9 12.7 15.0 -0.9 34.6 36.7 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.3 10.7 11.7 -0.9 32.3 36.4 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.5 -1.1 35.8 35.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------