***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.0 -0.7 37.6 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 13.1 12.9 15.8 -1.1 30.5 34.5 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.8 15.9 -0.7 38.3 38.8 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.1 14.2 -0.8 30.9 36.6 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.9 -0.8 31.4 36.5 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.7 12.3 -0.5 37.2 40.4 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.8 15.8 -1.1 32.3 35.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.7 11.9 -0.8 35.4 37.7 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 12.9 13.5 14.2 -0.8 32.5 36.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.4 12.6 -0.8 35.4 37.2 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.4 13.5 -0.7 35.6 38.6 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.0 12.9 -0.7 33.4 38.4 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 12.2 12.8 12.5 -0.6 32.3 38.2 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 13.1 13.6 14.1 -1.0 29.6 34.4 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 14.0 14.3 15.1 -0.6 35.9 38.8 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.5 13.3 -0.6 33.6 38.8 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.9 15.5 -1.2 30.2 33.1 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.3 11.9 -0.8 33.7 37.0 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.7 -1.1 30.9 35.3 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.0 7.7 10.2 -0.8 34.0 38.0 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 12.6 13.6 15.2 -0.8 35.5 38.1 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.3 -1.2 27.9 31.9 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.8 15.5 -1.0 31.7 36.0 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 12.7 13.3 13.9 -0.8 35.7 37.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.7 14.6 -0.7 34.4 38.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.4 12.5 -0.7 33.7 38.5 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.8 15.3 -0.7 35.9 39.6 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 12.1 12.1 14.6 -0.7 33.4 37.8 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.4 10.0 11.2 -0.8 35.2 37.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.7 15.9 -1.0 33.7 36.3 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------