***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 -1.2 28.1 29.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.0 13.1 15.1 -1.3 27.9 30.3 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.6 15.1 -1.2 28.3 29.9 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 9.2 8.9 13.2 -1.4 22.9 26.4 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.2 -1.3 23.7 26.5 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.0 11.0 10.8 -1.4 21.7 25.9 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.1 -1.3 27.3 29.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 5.1 4.9 10.6 -1.5 22.5 25.0 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.6 -1.4 23.0 26.5 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 12.6 12.7 11.7 -1.4 22.8 26.0 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 12.7 12.9 12.6 -1.4 23.5 25.1 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 10.4 10.6 11.4 -1.5 22.0 24.1 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 12.2 12.3 11.6 -1.3 21.6 25.0 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 13.3 13.1 13.4 -1.4 25.0 26.8 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 14.1 13.9 14.8 -1.2 23.0 26.2 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 12.8 12.8 12.3 -1.3 21.6 24.6 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 13.3 13.6 14.9 -1.2 29.6 31.5 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 11.0 11.8 10.8 -1.4 22.7 25.2 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.0 -1.3 26.8 30.0 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 7.1 7.3 8.4 -1.5 21.2 24.6 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 12.9 13.1 14.7 -1.4 25.8 27.6 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.7 -1.3 27.5 30.2 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.8 -1.3 24.6 29.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.1 -1.3 25.2 27.2 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 12.6 13.0 14.1 -1.4 21.9 25.5 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 11.8 11.4 11.1 -1.2 25.7 25.9 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 13.0 12.9 14.6 -1.2 25.2 28.0 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 11.8 11.8 13.8 -1.3 22.1 26.2 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.9 -1.5 22.5 24.5 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 13.7 13.5 15.2 -1.3 28.2 29.9 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------