***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 42.7 54.3 36.9 72.8 39.7 39.3 51.1 58.9 79.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 50.9 60.6 38.2 73.3 43.3 38.2 49.9 69.5 86.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 52.2 65.9 40.1 77.2 42.3 41.2 58.5 69.7 83.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 41.1 59.0 49.5 89.0 48.9 44.5 46.1 60.0 87.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 39.9 50.1 49.2 84.4 46.7 42.5 42.7 50.8 65.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 54.0 50.9 73.7 102.8 57.9 50.5 36.4 46.1 66.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 47.0 58.8 38.3 72.6 39.9 37.7 54.7 61.5 69.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 84.7 67.1 60.0 91.6 49.7 45.3 58.1 67.2 119.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 42.8 54.0 49.6 83.2 45.0 41.8 44.8 58.3 79.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 55.2 76.5 61.3 87.7 47.3 43.8 62.5 81.0 92.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 67.9 61.2 48.5 91.9 49.4 46.9 36.1 62.0 73.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 58.8 51.6 47.3 93.0 49.9 45.3 33.3 51.7 64.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 29.0 42.2 55.7 95.5 54.5 46.4 31.3 39.2 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 68.0 93.2 54.5 83.8 48.5 42.1 66.2 93.3 107.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 29.0 52.2 46.4 96.2 58.1 47.1 29.7 45.8 64.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 51.6 50.6 52.9 96.9 53.1 47.8 29.6 46.4 58.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 42.8 48.0 36.4 69.0 40.1 36.6 39.8 66.0 74.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 50.2 70.8 69.6 87.0 46.9 42.3 48.7 72.1 92.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 51.1 60.9 38.6 75.0 42.8 39.1 52.1 68.8 86.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 48.4 61.8 70.0 86.4 48.7 42.2 53.9 63.1 90.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 45.9 62.9 40.4 77.0 43.8 41.1 43.2 67.0 82.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 43.0 49.1 39.3 75.8 40.9 39.3 43.0 52.8 66.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 80.3 63.3 40.9 78.2 45.0 40.5 52.2 75.6 90.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 65.6 74.9 57.2 85.6 45.3 42.4 70.8 79.2 106.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 42.2 55.0 47.3 76.2 39.5 39.9 47.9 64.8 80.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 31.3 51.9 46.2 95.9 51.5 46.0 35.1 50.3 61.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 49.5 65.7 45.2 74.7 39.7 39.4 59.1 75.7 88.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 32.7 47.6 51.6 98.1 58.1 48.0 35.7 43.9 57.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 71.5 97.9 70.9 88.7 50.0 43.6 64.3 97.9 117.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 57.7 67.5 38.8 74.7 42.3 39.1 58.1 71.9 77.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------