***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.8 25.0 7.2 83.0 66.1 46.2 4.3 11.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.2 19.2 8.6 102.7 65.3 49.3 6.0 13.0 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.0 17.2 7.6 89.4 65.9 48.8 3.1 9.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.8 8.7 85.3 71.0 48.9 4.2 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 10.7 7.4 73.1 65.9 46.5 0.8 4.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.5 10.5 13.0 103.9 67.3 50.2 2.1 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.7 22.3 9.2 103.9 66.5 49.5 6.1 12.8 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 14.1 8.4 75.9 59.7 44.3 6.0 11.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.2 6.4 63.0 62.9 44.1 2.7 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.4 8.5 69.5 58.3 43.7 6.9 10.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.1 7.6 87.1 69.1 48.3 3.3 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.0 12.7 6.6 83.2 65.9 46.8 3.7 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.2 8.5 93.0 67.0 50.9 1.3 5.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.9 21.1 9.8 83.9 60.1 45.9 5.5 11.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.6 15.4 8.5 102.6 73.3 51.9 0.8 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.8 6.8 8.4 95.0 71.8 51.4 3.0 3.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.9 12.8 7.9 94.8 64.1 48.9 1.7 4.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 13.9 10.5 72.4 55.3 42.8 7.8 12.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 8.3 104.0 66.3 49.4 2.4 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.1 18.3 10.3 72.4 55.7 43.2 10.1 15.3 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.5 14.1 6.0 66.9 62.9 45.4 6.9 12.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.7 14.4 8.7 107.4 68.6 49.2 3.1 8.1 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.0 15.2 8.3 102.6 66.0 49.0 4.7 8.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.1 17.3 9.7 83.6 60.5 45.9 5.8 12.3 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 12.8 8.7 79.0 65.3 48.1 3.3 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.4 5.5 78.8 63.0 48.4 1.0 4.3 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.3 23.5 9.3 88.3 67.2 47.5 6.3 13.7 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.6 12.8 9.2 100.9 75.2 51.3 0.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.3 11.1 72.4 54.8 42.6 8.2 14.0 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.7 15.5 8.6 102.3 66.1 48.8 5.8 8.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------