***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.4 9.8 93.3 64.0 54.6 5.2 7.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.6 9.8 87.2 61.8 51.3 8.3 13.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.9 9.5 85.9 61.3 52.4 9.4 12.8 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.0 12.8 95.3 66.4 53.4 4.8 9.5 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.4 14.5 12.3 88.1 67.2 53.2 2.8 4.8 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.7 17.3 87.6 58.6 51.7 0.9 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.0 10.0 86.3 61.3 50.5 6.2 8.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.8 17.1 14.9 81.8 56.8 48.9 3.8 14.9 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.5 12.4 84.6 64.5 52.8 2.7 5.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 13.0 15.9 84.5 60.8 50.3 4.2 9.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.1 12.3 88.2 68.2 54.0 2.7 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.7 10.8 78.7 60.1 50.1 0.5 6.4 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.4 12.2 80.5 59.3 51.7 1.3 6.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 18.3 19.1 13.4 84.8 58.4 51.4 10.3 15.0 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.4 8.4 12.8 107.0 70.5 54.2 1.0 2.3 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.2 13.0 93.7 68.4 54.9 0.8 3.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.2 9.7 82.9 60.4 48.7 5.2 10.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 14.0 18.0 83.1 56.6 48.2 7.7 11.9 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.1 9.4 86.5 62.4 52.2 8.6 12.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 10.8 17.3 75.6 53.5 45.8 8.3 10.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 9.8 83.3 64.8 53.4 4.8 9.1 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.9 13.7 10.3 88.8 65.5 50.6 5.7 8.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.2 18.6 9.4 83.4 62.7 52.8 9.2 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.4 20.9 14.1 84.2 57.7 49.9 11.7 19.0 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.3 12.9 87.6 61.6 53.0 5.7 11.4 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.8 10.1 9.8 81.8 61.9 51.6 1.2 6.0 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.9 12.7 93.0 63.1 54.0 4.9 8.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 9.4 13.7 104.9 71.1 55.7 1.6 3.3 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.0 18.1 17.8 83.2 56.4 48.0 13.7 16.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.4 17.4 9.9 90.3 63.8 52.5 10.3 14.4 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------