***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.5 31.2 12.4 99.6 67.6 50.8 7.4 11.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.6 19.8 13.4 94.2 65.3 50.1 9.2 11.1 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.1 26.4 14.3 106.5 68.4 52.5 7.3 10.7 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.6 26.8 16.2 117.7 66.8 51.4 3.4 11.6 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.4 22.8 17.4 120.8 68.7 53.5 4.0 15.6 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 18.4 29.6 25.6 124.5 70.0 55.3 4.7 13.6 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.9 16.9 13.4 93.3 64.8 49.7 8.4 10.9 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 37.7 21.4 131.3 74.4 58.6 7.1 16.1 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.8 21.6 18.3 119.1 71.4 51.6 8.9 15.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.1 38.5 22.1 125.7 74.3 56.2 10.7 19.3 32.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.0 26.2 16.9 135.6 73.4 58.9 6.3 14.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.4 22.4 16.7 132.7 71.0 57.3 2.7 9.0 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 17.6 23.9 20.3 127.3 69.0 55.2 5.6 15.2 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.0 33.9 19.1 115.4 68.7 54.1 14.0 20.9 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 20.4 14.3 125.0 71.4 53.4 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.7 23.0 18.6 129.4 70.1 56.2 3.4 11.0 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.3 20.4 12.8 88.7 64.6 49.6 5.1 12.4 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 31.2 24.7 114.9 70.8 54.5 5.9 12.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.8 21.8 13.6 99.7 67.9 50.8 5.9 11.9 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 20.3 25.0 110.6 68.0 54.6 7.9 15.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.2 21.9 14.5 111.8 69.0 51.6 6.2 11.7 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.9 16.5 13.4 98.1 66.4 50.0 7.0 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 18.5 28.1 14.6 109.9 71.1 51.5 6.7 11.8 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.4 37.4 20.4 116.2 70.7 54.8 12.9 21.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.9 15.0 97.2 62.9 48.0 5.9 10.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.6 27.7 17.6 141.4 73.0 57.3 2.0 14.4 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.7 22.6 14.3 93.9 63.0 48.3 10.8 17.0 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.2 20.2 16.8 129.4 71.4 54.6 1.7 8.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.9 45.0 24.7 114.8 72.4 55.3 10.8 15.5 37.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 19.5 13.5 98.2 67.2 51.0 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------