***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.4 5.1 7.6 39.6 35.6 29.5 3.4 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 10.3 10.8 6.5 35.3 31.3 28.3 11.6 20.1 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.6 8.7 8.7 46.3 39.1 33.2 5.6 11.8 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 7.0 9.7 11.9 65.0 40.5 39.4 8.2 14.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 5.3 8.3 12.1 61.2 39.4 37.8 6.4 13.3 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 19.9 19.3 17.8 94.5 55.7 51.8 11.6 19.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 4.1 6.0 5.7 31.8 27.6 25.9 7.3 10.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.2 13.0 15.3 77.8 45.8 43.7 10.4 15.4 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.5 8.7 12.5 64.5 39.6 39.3 5.7 11.3 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 6.9 10.1 14.8 70.2 41.5 40.9 7.3 15.3 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 6.4 11.8 11.7 66.6 39.6 40.3 10.5 16.5 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.0 13.2 79.7 47.6 44.6 5.5 7.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.5 9.9 14.8 81.5 49.2 45.1 5.7 10.1 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.8 12.1 12.3 58.6 40.9 36.6 10.8 13.9 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.4 10.9 65.6 43.1 38.0 1.1 6.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.8 12.9 74.1 44.0 43.1 4.4 8.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.0 32.7 32.3 27.7 6.5 11.4 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.1 11.3 16.4 74.0 46.0 41.1 4.0 13.3 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.3 13.7 7.3 38.6 33.8 29.8 13.5 19.7 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 14.1 17.4 81.8 48.1 44.4 6.7 14.5 27.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.2 10.0 54.2 40.3 37.6 7.8 11.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 8.7 10.5 6.9 37.2 34.6 29.1 10.1 16.0 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.6 44.0 34.2 31.5 8.0 14.9 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.6 12.6 12.9 62.6 43.0 37.8 7.4 17.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 6.6 8.0 10.7 51.1 35.6 33.0 7.6 11.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.1 7.9 13.3 79.3 49.6 44.9 1.7 8.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.9 5.1 8.9 42.6 33.5 29.0 5.0 11.1 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.2 8.5 11.9 68.6 41.9 40.6 2.7 13.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.5 19.6 17.3 80.3 47.2 42.8 9.2 20.7 32.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 9.7 10.2 6.8 36.3 30.5 28.1 10.9 19.8 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------