***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 28.1 28.1 28.2 0.8 73.0 66.2 27.0 27.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.9 28.3 0.9 71.8 66.8 26.5 27.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.6 27.7 28.2 0.7 72.4 63.8 26.5 27.3 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.6 26.1 0.1 59.2 53.4 19.7 20.1 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.1 26.2 0.3 63.5 56.6 26.5 27.8 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.4 23.7 0.0 55.6 51.9 25.5 26.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.6 27.5 28.3 0.9 70.7 67.6 26.4 26.9 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.1 24.4 0.3 63.1 56.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.8 26.7 0.4 68.5 59.5 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.6 25.2 0.4 65.7 58.6 25.8 27.0 27.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.9 25.7 0.3 62.7 56.4 26.1 27.3 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.9 25.4 0.2 61.2 55.1 25.7 26.5 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.7 24.8 0.0 54.3 50.4 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 27.4 27.4 26.4 0.6 69.9 63.3 26.1 26.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.4 26.8 0.0 52.9 50.1 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.4 25.4 0.1 55.9 53.2 27.1 28.2 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 27.3 26.9 28.0 0.8 70.0 66.1 26.1 26.5 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.0 24.5 0.5 66.5 60.7 25.4 26.4 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 27.1 27.2 28.3 0.8 71.5 65.8 26.0 26.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.5 22.3 0.4 64.2 59.5 21.1 22.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 27.9 27.9 27.6 0.5 70.0 61.3 26.5 27.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 27.1 27.4 27.8 0.7 67.5 64.3 26.4 26.9 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.4 27.9 0.7 70.8 64.2 26.4 26.8 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.2 26.8 26.2 0.5 68.8 61.7 25.5 26.7 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 27.9 27.9 26.5 0.4 68.8 60.4 26.4 27.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 27.5 27.2 24.6 0.0 55.3 49.8 26.5 27.2 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 27.5 27.4 27.3 0.6 71.2 64.1 26.2 26.8 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.2 26.4 0.0 54.7 51.2 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.2 23.5 0.5 66.7 60.7 21.0 21.7 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.6 28.5 0.8 72.4 66.7 26.1 27.0 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------