***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.5 28.5 0.8 60.7 57.7 26.1 27.3 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.3 28.6 28.6 0.8 64.7 58.0 26.0 26.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 27.8 28.1 28.5 0.7 60.2 57.0 25.5 27.2 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.5 19.8 26.6 0.1 48.3 50.2 18.5 19.8 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.1 26.7 0.4 53.2 53.3 26.3 27.6 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 27.0 26.6 24.5 0.3 49.7 52.7 25.4 26.6 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.5 28.6 0.9 65.8 58.8 25.7 27.0 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.5 17.1 25.2 0.6 56.5 55.9 13.9 16.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 27.5 27.7 27.0 0.5 54.3 54.7 25.1 27.0 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.9 25.7 0.6 55.4 55.6 24.9 26.7 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 27.2 27.8 26.2 0.5 54.5 54.1 25.4 26.7 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 26.2 27.0 26.2 0.5 56.4 55.1 24.8 25.7 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 27.6 27.3 25.5 0.3 52.4 53.1 26.0 27.1 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.5 28.2 26.7 0.8 62.2 58.1 25.6 26.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 28.8 27.5 27.0 -0.2 45.2 47.0 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 28.2 27.7 26.0 0.3 51.5 52.8 26.5 27.7 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.0 28.2 28.3 0.8 66.7 57.5 25.4 26.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.2 25.1 0.8 59.8 57.7 24.4 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.2 28.1 28.5 0.8 63.4 57.7 25.6 26.6 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.9 23.0 23.2 0.8 60.6 58.2 20.3 22.4 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.8 27.8 0.6 56.1 55.0 25.7 27.3 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.9 28.1 0.7 64.6 56.8 26.0 26.9 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.7 28.2 0.8 62.1 57.2 25.4 26.8 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 27.1 27.7 26.6 0.7 60.3 57.3 25.2 26.5 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.0 26.8 0.4 56.0 54.1 25.7 27.1 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.4 25.6 0.4 52.6 53.4 26.0 27.3 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.8 27.6 0.7 60.5 56.9 25.4 27.2 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 29.1 28.7 26.8 0.0 46.1 48.6 26.9 28.8 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.8 23.2 24.1 0.8 60.6 58.2 19.6 22.3 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.6 28.2 28.7 0.8 63.3 58.2 25.6 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------