***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.8 27.2 27.3 0.1 57.0 53.5 26.5 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.8 27.0 27.3 0.0 56.1 52.5 25.6 26.8 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 24.9 27.0 27.2 0.0 53.8 52.2 25.0 26.9 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 18.3 19.3 25.4 -0.4 44.4 46.5 18.8 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 25.3 27.1 25.4 -0.2 48.1 48.2 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.1 23.2 -0.2 48.5 48.9 24.0 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.5 27.1 27.3 0.1 57.0 53.3 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.7 23.7 -0.1 48.2 49.3 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 24.8 26.7 25.7 -0.1 50.9 49.8 24.9 26.7 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 24.8 26.2 24.4 -0.1 49.3 49.7 25.3 26.2 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.9 26.5 24.8 -0.2 47.6 48.8 25.3 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.3 25.2 24.6 -0.2 46.8 48.7 24.7 25.3 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.0 25.7 23.9 -0.4 42.9 47.1 25.3 26.2 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 24.2 26.3 25.4 0.0 48.0 51.3 25.0 26.3 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 26.2 27.1 25.9 -0.5 44.6 44.8 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.8 24.5 -0.3 43.2 47.6 26.2 27.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 24.1 26.5 26.9 -0.1 53.5 50.4 25.0 26.5 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 24.2 25.9 23.7 0.0 51.2 51.2 24.2 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.3 26.7 27.2 0.0 54.0 51.9 24.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.2 21.7 0.0 50.1 51.0 20.0 21.2 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 24.9 26.9 26.6 -0.1 53.2 50.7 25.4 26.8 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.3 27.0 26.7 -0.2 48.7 48.4 24.8 27.1 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.6 26.8 -0.1 50.5 51.1 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 24.1 25.9 25.3 0.0 50.6 51.4 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 25.1 27.1 25.6 -0.1 53.7 49.9 25.8 26.9 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.8 23.9 -0.4 47.1 47.8 25.0 25.9 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 24.8 26.7 26.4 0.0 56.4 52.3 25.1 26.5 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 26.3 26.9 25.6 -0.4 43.2 45.6 26.2 27.9 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 19.5 21.3 22.7 0.1 50.8 51.4 19.5 21.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.7 26.8 27.4 0.1 56.8 53.3 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------