***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.3 17.4 0.4 60.1 61.2 14.7 15.1 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.5 17.6 0.5 67.7 64.4 14.2 14.6 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.7 16.7 17.3 0.4 62.1 61.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 15.2 0.1 49.9 52.4 11.1 11.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 15.2 0.3 61.8 58.3 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 13.4 0.2 60.7 57.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.6 17.8 0.6 69.9 65.4 14.3 15.1 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.8 7.8 13.2 0.3 63.6 59.9 6.9 7.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 15.5 0.3 61.7 58.1 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.9 13.9 0.4 66.6 61.3 14.0 14.4 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.8 14.8 0.3 64.5 60.4 13.8 14.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.7 14.1 0.2 58.5 57.6 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.1 13.9 0.3 58.4 58.5 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.4 15.6 0.4 63.0 61.1 14.5 15.1 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.6 15.9 0.0 51.1 50.0 14.8 15.5 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.2 14.6 0.3 61.2 58.5 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.9 17.3 0.5 68.6 63.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.6 13.2 0.4 66.1 63.0 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 15.1 15.2 17.4 0.5 65.3 62.5 14.1 14.6 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.4 11.4 0.4 69.1 64.0 8.3 8.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.9 16.6 0.3 60.1 59.3 14.0 14.7 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 14.8 14.8 17.2 0.5 66.8 62.8 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.5 17.0 0.3 62.1 59.2 13.8 14.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.1 15.3 0.4 63.4 62.0 14.1 14.9 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.5 15.8 0.2 55.9 56.2 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.5 13.8 0.2 56.5 56.0 12.8 13.5 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.7 16.6 0.4 58.5 59.1 13.7 14.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.6 15.6 0.1 52.3 52.6 12.8 13.6 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.9 12.7 0.5 69.7 66.0 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.5 17.7 0.5 67.1 64.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------