***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.9 17.7 0.0 50.8 50.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.6 17.8 0.0 52.6 50.4 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 16.6 17.4 17.5 -0.1 52.4 48.9 16.8 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.4 15.6 -0.3 43.2 44.4 12.0 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.6 15.5 -0.2 44.3 47.1 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.4 13.9 -0.2 44.1 46.9 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.8 18.0 0.1 52.7 51.4 14.9 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.6 13.6 -0.1 46.6 48.3 8.1 8.6 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.2 15.8 -0.1 44.6 48.2 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.2 14.1 -0.1 45.9 48.2 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.4 15.1 -0.1 44.5 48.6 14.8 15.6 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.2 14.6 -0.1 45.1 47.6 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.6 14.2 -0.2 44.9 46.1 14.3 15.1 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 15.6 -0.2 48.5 47.3 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.5 16.1 -0.5 39.4 41.9 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.6 15.0 -0.1 44.6 47.2 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.3 17.4 0.0 52.3 50.1 15.2 16.3 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.8 13.4 -0.1 46.6 48.7 13.2 14.0 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.3 17.7 0.0 51.0 49.5 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 11.8 -0.1 50.2 50.0 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.1 16.8 -0.1 49.0 48.2 14.8 15.2 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.0 15.2 17.3 -0.1 49.7 48.4 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.8 17.2 -0.1 49.6 47.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 15.4 -0.2 47.3 47.7 14.9 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.5 16.0 -0.1 46.7 47.5 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.5 14.5 14.3 -0.2 41.4 45.9 13.9 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.3 16.8 0.0 48.1 49.2 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.5 15.9 -0.4 41.0 43.6 13.8 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.3 12.8 -0.1 49.0 48.6 11.6 12.3 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.9 18.0 0.0 52.8 50.5 15.3 15.7 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------