***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.7 17.7 0.4 56.3 56.4 14.3 14.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.7 17.8 0.4 57.5 54.9 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.3 17.5 0.3 55.6 54.5 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.5 15.5 0.0 49.6 48.9 10.2 11.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.3 15.5 0.1 51.6 51.7 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 13.7 0.0 51.1 50.0 11.6 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.7 17.9 0.4 60.3 55.9 14.4 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.6 13.5 0.1 53.1 51.8 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 15.8 0.2 53.5 53.3 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.3 14.1 0.1 53.6 52.2 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.5 15.0 0.1 52.2 52.0 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.4 14.5 0.1 52.3 51.4 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.5 14.2 0.0 50.3 50.3 13.1 13.5 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.0 15.7 0.1 55.3 52.8 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.0 16.0 -0.2 46.3 46.8 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.2 14.8 0.0 48.8 50.1 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.1 17.5 0.3 56.5 54.9 14.7 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.2 13.4 0.2 53.7 52.9 12.4 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.5 17.7 0.3 54.3 53.9 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.3 11.8 0.2 55.3 53.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.5 16.8 0.3 54.3 54.3 13.4 14.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.1 17.3 0.3 54.3 54.1 13.7 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.1 17.2 0.2 51.4 52.4 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.8 15.5 0.2 54.7 53.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.5 16.0 0.2 52.5 53.0 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.2 14.3 0.0 52.1 50.2 12.7 13.2 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 16.8 0.3 55.9 54.9 13.1 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.2 15.8 -0.2 46.8 47.1 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.8 0.2 56.3 53.2 10.6 11.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.8 17.9 0.4 57.7 55.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------