***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.5 16.8 0.0 51.9 50.9 14.0 14.4 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 13.0 14.6 16.9 0.0 55.8 51.3 12.8 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.2 16.2 16.6 -0.1 51.6 50.3 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.5 14.5 -0.4 38.1 43.8 9.9 11.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.5 12.5 14.4 -0.3 40.7 45.8 12.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.7 -0.3 45.5 47.4 11.2 11.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.3 14.8 17.0 0.0 57.1 51.8 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.5 12.5 -0.2 46.4 48.9 5.1 6.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.8 14.7 -0.2 42.6 47.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.1 13.2 -0.2 44.6 48.2 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.8 14.0 -0.3 43.6 47.0 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.3 13.5 -0.2 44.4 47.4 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.1 13.1 -0.3 41.7 46.1 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.5 14.8 -0.1 44.7 49.8 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.4 15.1 -0.4 36.7 43.7 13.9 15.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.7 13.8 -0.3 43.5 46.3 13.3 14.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.7 16.6 -0.1 51.2 49.7 13.6 14.6 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.3 12.5 -0.1 45.6 49.1 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.3 16.8 0.0 52.4 50.5 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.2 10.7 -0.1 47.7 49.7 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.8 15.8 -0.2 46.9 48.0 13.2 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.6 16.4 -0.2 48.6 48.7 12.9 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.7 16.4 -0.1 48.2 49.3 12.5 13.8 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.0 14.6 -0.1 45.5 49.4 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.2 13.0 15.1 -0.3 44.2 46.2 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.5 13.3 -0.2 47.9 47.9 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.8 15.9 -0.1 50.6 48.9 12.4 12.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.5 14.9 -0.4 40.1 44.8 12.1 12.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.7 11.8 -0.2 45.4 48.9 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.7 17.0 0.1 56.7 51.9 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------